Adding what-if events to a time forecasting model scenario

What-if events enable you to predict changes in a time forecasting model scenario in case of:

• Planned and unplanned events in the system data, such as hardware upgrades and increased storage size
• Any other general event, such as increase in a business driver

You can add multiple what-if events to the scenario.

The following video (3:38) illustrates how to add a what-if event to a time forecasting model scenario and view results.

 https://youtu.be/JyFmqqXD3gI

To add a what-if event to a time forecasting model scenario

1. Log in to the BMC Helix Continuous Optimization.
2. On the Workspace tab, navigate to the time forecasting model scenario.
3. On the time forecasting model scenario detail page, click Add what-if event next to What-if events.
   
   
   
   
4. From the Event type list, select the type of what-if event that you are adding to the scenario and enter information for all the required parameters. Some parameters are common for all event types, while some are specific to the selected event type.
5. Configure the following parameters that are common to all event types:
   
   • Event type description: An auto generated description for the selected event type.
   • Systems: Select the systems that you want to include in this event. To select multiple systems, use Click+drag, Ctrl+click, or Shift+click.
   • Business Drivers: Select business drivers that you want to include in this event. To select multiple business drivers, use Click+drag, Ctrl+click, or Shift+click.
   • Series selection: Select any one:
     • All available resources: Incorporates all available resources into the what-if event.
     • Select resources: Select one or more resource to incorporate into the what-if event from the Resources list.
   • Event time: A date for the event.
   • Label: A label for this event. By default, a label is added according to the event that you select from the Event type list.
   • Description: A description for the selected event type.

6. Configure the following event-specific parameters.

   
   

   Event type	Description	Event type specific parameters
   Event types for systems
   Generic - performance increase/decrease (%)	A generic variation that affects a performance metric.	Change factor: Specify a percentage value by which the resource utilization is increased or decreased. To indicate a decrease in the percentage value, specify a negative number. For example, the -10% value indicates that the utilization of the resource will be decreased by 10% .
   Generic - performance increase/decrease (absolute)	A generic variation that affects a performance metric.	Increase: Specify a percentage value that indicates an absolute shift of the resource utilization. In case of decrease, specify a negative number.
   Generic - speed up	A generic speed-up on a performance metric.	Speed-up: A percentage value by which you want to speed up the metric. For example, the 10% value indicates that the resource will improve its speed by 10% so that its utilization will be decreased accordingly.
   Grid - Change number of servers	A planned change in the number of servers in a grid environment. This option is displayed only when the time forecasting model for which you are adding this what-if event includes CPU, memory, or file system utilization metrics. When you apply this what-if event, the forecasting algorithm assumes that the CPU, memory, and file system resources of the grids are uniformly used by applications. If you do not want this scenario, ensure not to include these metrics in the parent time forecasting model.	Current grid servers: Number of grid servers that are currently available. What-if grid servers: Number of grid servers that you want to add to this event.
   Server - CPU configuration upgrade	A planned CPU configuration upgrade.	Using benchmark: Select a benchmark to use for the analysis. Current vendor: Select a vendor. Depends on the selection you make in the Using benchmark list. Current system: Select a system. Depends on the selection you make in the Current vendor list. Current cores number: Displays the current number of cores in the system.  Current system detail: Auto-populates the details of system that is selected in the Current system list. What-if vendor: Select a vendor to be used in the what-if event. What-if system: Select a system to be used in the what-if event. What-if system detail: Auto-populates the details of the system that is selected in the What-if system list. What-if cores number: Displays the number of cores to be used for the event. Speed-up: Displays the percentage increase in the CPU speed. Speed-up per core: Displays the percentage speed-up per CPU core.
   Server - CPU speed-up	A custom increase in the CPU speed.	Current CPU frequency: Displays the current CPU frequency in MHz. Current cores number: Displays the current number of cores. What-if CPU frequency: Specify the CPU frequency to be used for the event. What-if cores number: Specify the number of cores to be used for the event.
   Server - CPU utilization change	A custom change in the CPU utilization.	Change factor: A percentage value by which you want to change the CPU utilization for the event.
   Event types for business drivers
   Generic - Business Driver Change	A generic variation that affects a business driver metric.	Change factor: A percentage value by which you want to change the resource utilization for the event.

7. Save the changes.

Where to go from here

After adding one or more what-if events to a time forecasting scenario, you can re-run the scenario. For details, see Running a time forecasting model scenario.